Barnaby Joyce has defended One Nation’s plan to reduce net overseas migration by about 750,000 over three years and temporarily push migration into negative territory. The party’s Treasury spokesman says the “will of the Australian people” should take priority over economists’ warnings. Business groups, universities and policy experts, however, warn that cuts on this scale could hit economic growth, construction, healthcare and the broader labour market. Labor and the Coalition also want lower migration, but neither has yet released a fully detailed plan.
Australia’s migration debate is entering a more confrontational phase.
After unveiling a plan to reduce net migration by about 750,000 over three years, One Nation is pushing back against criticism from economists, universities and business groups.
Barnaby Joyce, the party’s Treasury spokesman, said voters’ concerns about migration should be given greater weight than warnings from economic experts.
“The will of the Australian people is so pronounced, this has to be dealt with, we will deal with it,” Joyce said.
Net migration below zero for three years
One Nation’s policy would push net overseas migration into negative territory for three years, meaning more people would leave Australia than arrive.
After that, the party wants migration to settle at an annual level of about 130,000.
The plan is focused largely on temporary migration.
It includes major restrictions on international students and a proposal to prevent skilled migrant workers from bringing family members to Australia.
One Nation says it would leave demand-driven programs largely untouched, including skilled worker visas themselves and the Pacific labour program relied upon by many farmers and regional employers.
Joyce: Australians are “tired” of economists
Joyce dismissed concerns about the economic cost of the policy and said he was not particularly worried about what the Parliamentary Budget Office or other economic bodies might conclude.
He argued that Australians were tired of public policy being driven by economists rather than voters.
His central argument was political: economists and officials are not elected, while parliamentarians are.
That position puts the public mood, rather than economic forecasting, at the centre of One Nation’s case.
Warning of an economic shock
The criticism has been severe.
Political commentator George Megalogenis noted that Australia has experienced negative net migration only in exceptional periods — during the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s and during the two world wars.
He warned that removing around 766,000 people from the economy and society over three years could produce an economic shock on a scale comparable with a severe downturn.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry has also criticised the idea of pursuing a rigid numerical target.
Chief executive Andrew McKellar warned that arbitrary cuts across visa categories could cause long-term damage to the Australian economy.
Workforce shortages remain a major concern
One of the biggest issues is the labour market.
Sectors including construction, healthcare, aged care, disability services and agriculture rely heavily on migrant workers.
A rapid fall in migration could ease pressure on housing and infrastructure, but it could also worsen workforce shortages in industries already struggling to recruit.
That trade-off sits at the heart of the debate.
One Nation argues that Australia’s migration system has put too much pressure on housing, services and living standards.
Critics argue that moving too quickly could create new economic problems while trying to solve existing ones.
Labor and Coalition also promise lower migration
One Nation’s political advantage on the issue is that both Labor and the Coalition have also acknowledged that migration needs to come down.
The federal government is targeting net migration of around 225,000 a year by 2028, down from a current rate of roughly 300,000.
However, Labor has yet to release the full details of its next migration package.
The Coalition has signalled that it wants migration levels more closely linked to the rate of housing construction, so population growth does not continue to outpace housing supply.
That proposal, too, remains short on detail.
Hastie says cuts require trade-offs
Coalition frontbencher Andrew Hastie has acknowledged that lower migration will involve difficult trade-offs.
He said he supports some elements of One Nation’s approach, including tighter rules around temporary graduate visas and action against so-called “visa hopping”.
However, he argued that One Nation had not explained clearly enough how its broader cuts would be implemented without damaging essential industries.
Race and belonging enter the debate
The migration debate has also moved into more sensitive territory.
Human rights lawyer Nyadol Nyuon argued that migration is often used as a proxy for debates about race and belonging in Australia.
She criticised attempts to associate criminality or social problems with particular communities.
One Nation has proposed restricting migration from some countries subject to Department of Foreign Affairs “do not travel” warnings linked to terrorism or security risks.
The Coalition has also proposed tougher requirements around Australian values and slower access to some social security benefits for non-citizens.
Anne Aly: “I fear we are losing the Australia I knew”
Multicultural Affairs Minister Anne Aly has expressed a different concern.
She recalled growing up in a multicultural Australia where children from Greek, Italian, Yugoslav, Chinese and other backgrounds played together without ethnicity becoming a source of division.
Aly said she feared that this version of Australia was being lost.
The real debate: numbers or national capacity?
The question is no longer simply how many migrants Australia should accept.
The deeper issue is what level of migration can be sustained by housing, infrastructure, services and the labour market.
One Nation wants an immediate and dramatic reduction.
Labor and the Coalition favour lower migration too, but appear to be moving more cautiously and have yet to fully explain where the cuts would fall.
The political battle is now clear: One Nation has chosen to frame the issue around “the will of the people”. The challenge for the major parties will be to show that migration can be reduced without causing economic damage greater than the problems they are trying to solve.
