Republicans are gathering in Dallas for an unusual two-day midterm convention built around Donald Trump and his record in office. The GOP hopes the event will energise candidates ahead of November, but the party enters the campaign with fragile congressional majorities, softer approval ratings for the president and growing economic pressure from the war with Iran. Trump has acknowledged that oil prices, now above US$100 a barrel, may not fall before the midterm elections.
Dallas has become the centre of Republican politics for two days as the party tries to turn Donald Trump’s presidency into the central message of the 2026 midterm campaign.
The Midterm Republican Convention is part rally, part fundraiser and part campaign launch, with Trump scheduled to headline both nights.
The president will deliver the keynote address on the opening night, while Vice President JD Vance is due to speak on Thursday before Trump returns for closing remarks. Members of the Cabinet are also expected to address delegates.
The strategy is straightforward: Republicans want voters to judge their candidates through the record of Trump’s first two years back in office.
Republicans under pressure
The GOP is entering the convention with little room for error.
Republicans hold only a narrow majority in the House and control the Senate 53-47. Several races are expected to be highly competitive, and some candidates in tight contests have chosen to remain in their home states rather than attend the Dallas gathering.
Organisers nevertheless expect around 30,000 people across the two nights and continue to argue that Trump remains the party’s strongest mobilisation asset, despite weaker approval numbers.
Iran war becomes an election issue
The most difficult issue for the White House may be the war with Iran.
Before leaving for Dallas, Trump said oil prices that have surged because of the conflict may not fall until after the midterm elections.
Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, after rising more than 3 per cent amid a renewed escalation between the United States and Iran.
Trump said prices would eventually fall and predicted that Iran could relent after the elections.
But the timeline has become politically sensitive. At the start of the conflict, the president suggested the war would last only a matter of weeks. It is now in its seventh month.
Public opinion turning against the war
The conflict could prove one of the Republicans’ biggest vulnerabilities.
An AP-NORC poll cited in the live coverage found that about two-thirds of US adults believe the war with Iran has not been worthwhile.
That leaves Trump facing a double challenge: defend the military strategy while also convincing voters that the economic impact on fuel, transport and household costs will be temporary.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reinforced the administration’s hard line, saying the US will continue to put economic pressure on Iran and that attempts to strike American naval vessels will be met with consequences for Iranian tankers.
Democrats launch counterprogramming
Democrats are also in Dallas, using the Republican convention as an opportunity to attack the administration.
Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, widely discussed as a possible 2028 presidential contender, criticised the White House over the Iran war, fuel prices, housing, healthcare and broader cost-of-living pressures.
His message was designed to shift attention away from the spectacle of the Republican gathering and towards the economic issues affecting voters.
Vance already looking beyond 2026
The convention is also offering an early glimpse at the future of the Republican Party.
JD Vance is due to meet delegations from Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio, all states that could be crucial in the next presidential cycle.
Vance has not formally announced a 2028 campaign, but he is widely expected to consider a bid to succeed Trump.
Trump makes the midterms a test of his presidency
The political risk for Trump is clear.
He wants the midterms to become a referendum on his administration’s record.
If Republicans hold both chambers of Congress, Dallas could be remembered as a demonstration of Trump’s continued ability to mobilise the party.
If the GOP loses the House or Senate, however, the decision to put the president so firmly at the centre of the campaign will make it difficult to separate the result from public judgement of the White House.
The Dallas convention therefore opens a midterm campaign in which war, oil prices, the economy and the future of Republican leadership are all tightly connected. Trump may not be on the ballot in November, but politically he remains the most important candidate in the race.
Be the first to comment