With less than six months until Victoria heads to the polls, the state Labor government is facing one of the most challenging periods in its recent history. New polling suggests Premier Jacinta Allan is struggling to maintain public support, with growing speculation that her leadership could soon come under renewed internal pressure.
According to the latest Freshwater Strategy poll conducted for the Herald Sun, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to just 23 per cent, down four points since March and a dramatic fourteen points below its result at the 2022 state election.
The Coalition currently leads on 27 per cent, while the most striking development is the rise of One Nation, which has surged to 25 per cent of the primary vote, overtaking Labor and emerging as a significant political force in Victoria.
The results reflect a broader trend seen across Australia, where voters appear increasingly willing to abandon traditional party loyalties in favour of alternative political movements.
Pressure Mounts on Jacinta Allan
The polling numbers become even more troubling for the Premier when voters are asked directly about her leadership.
A clear majority of Victorians — 62 per cent — believe it is time for Labor to replace Jacinta Allan as leader. Perhaps more concerning for the government is that nearly four in ten Labor voters share that view.
The findings have reportedly reignited discussions among senior Labor figures about the party’s future direction, although insiders continue to deny any immediate plans for a leadership challenge.
For more than a year, Allan has struggled to reverse declining approval ratings and growing voter dissatisfaction. The latest survey places her net favourability rating at minus 37, highlighting the extent of the political challenge she faces.
Jess Wilson Gains Momentum
Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continues to build momentum.
Wilson recorded a positive favourability rating of plus 15 and now leads Allan comfortably in the preferred premier category.
While the Coalition has not experienced a major surge in support, Wilson’s personal popularity suggests voters are increasingly looking to the opposition as a credible alternative government.
With the election campaign expected to intensify in coming months, her growing profile could prove decisive.
Ben Carroll Emerging as a Potential Successor
Within Labor, attention has increasingly turned to Deputy Premier Ben Carroll as a possible replacement should the party decide a leadership change is necessary.
Freshwater Strategy found that Labor’s primary vote could improve modestly if Carroll were installed as leader.
However, analysts warn that replacing Allan may not provide an immediate solution. Carroll, like other potential contenders, remains relatively unknown to many Victorian voters.
Political observers argue that Labor’s difficulties run deeper than leadership alone, reflecting broader concerns about government performance after more than a decade in power.
The “Ditch the Witch” Controversy
The Premier’s political difficulties have been compounded by controversy surrounding a privately funded advertising campaign that appeared in Melbourne’s CBD over the weekend.
The campaign featured trucks displaying the slogan “Ditch the Witch”, directly targeting Allan and sparking widespread criticism.
The Premier condemned the campaign as sexist and warned that Australian politics was becoming increasingly toxic.
“People are entitled to disagree with me. That’s democracy,” Allan said. “But I care that this attacks women. And I care about who’s next.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, opposition leader Jess Wilson and several Coalition MPs also criticised the campaign.
However, Pauline Hanson dismissed the controversy, telling the Premier to “suck it up”, further fuelling debate over the tone of political discourse in Australia.
A Defining Moment for Victorian Labor
As Victoria moves closer to the next state election, Labor finds itself confronting a difficult reality.
The party is not only losing support to the Coalition but is also facing growing competition from One Nation and other alternative political forces that are capitalising on voter frustration.
For Jacinta Allan, the coming months could determine both her political future and that of the Victorian Labor government.
If polling trends continue in the same direction, calls for a leadership change may become impossible to ignore.
And in politics, when discussions about possible successors begin to dominate the conversation, it is often a sign that a leader’s position is becoming increasingly fragile.
