Allora! Online – Redazione
Australia’s labour market has suffered a setback. Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 15 October show that employment fell by 39,300 in September compared with August, to around 14.78 million. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 4.7%, while the number of unemployed people rose to 732,000, almost 9,000 more than a month earlier.
The decline was uneven across types of employment. Full-time employment rose by 34,400, while part-time employment fell by 73,700. The overall fall was therefore driven by part-time work. Hours worked, however, edged up by 0.1%, a reminder to consider both the number of people employed and how much they are working.
According to Reuters, analysts had expected employment to rise by around 20,000. The result surprised markets and reduced expectations of another interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November. These were expectations recorded after the release, rather than a decision already made by the central bank. In analysis reported by the news agency, Sunny Nguyen of Moody’s Analytics interpreted weakness in shifts and flexible employment as a possible early sign of slowing recruitment.
The statistical picture also shows some resilience. In the trend series, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, unemployment remains at 4.6% and employment rose by 15,700. Seasonally adjusted and trend figures answer different questions: the former highlight the latest movements, while the latter help distinguish the underlying direction from the noise in individual releases.
The ABS has also completed a program to modernise the survey. The update outlined in August includes questionnaires that are easier to use on phones and tablets, and more frequent collection of some information, including occupation and industry. The bureau says the survey’s scope, coverage, sample design and core questions used to calculate the main indicators have not changed.
The September data also mark the return of the full range of labour statistics products. More detailed information may help establish whether the fall is concentrated in particular industries or points to more widespread weakness.
For jobseekers, the question now is whether the decline in part-time employment will continue. Upcoming releases will help distinguish an isolated fall from a more lasting shift in the labour market.
